Changing Relationships

Wales’s relationship with England could be radically reshaped in the next few years, irrespective of what the people of Wales might want. As Carwyn Jones has rightly pointed out, the departure of Scottish MPs from Westminster could leave Welsh MPs overshadowed by the sheer numbers of members for England. The loss of Scottish MPs would also  mean the wider ‘voices of devolution’, which act as a counter to English arrogance, would be much diminished.

Add to this, the proposed reduction in the numbers of Welsh MPs and the continuing uncertainty about the role and place in Cabinet of the Secretary of State for Wales and Wales could well be on the political margins.

The possible changing or breaking of Scotland’s link with the rest of the UK could also have financial consequences for Wales. Anything other than complete independence will mean Scotland’s financial settlement will come under intense scrutiny and it’s debatable whether the Barnett formula will survive this process.

At a Bevan Foundation seminar in September, Gerry Holtham argued that the SNP had in mind a settlement that was no longer based on a per head formula or even a needs-based formula, but one that reflected what Scotland put into the UK pot.  Barnett would, in other words, be ditched and be replaced with an approach in which if you put a lot in to the UK pot, you should get a lot out.  Such an approach could be disastrous for Wales.

Given all the possible consequences for Wales of greater devolution or independence for Scotland, you might expect a lively political debate here too – but no. Elin Jones AM argued eloquently in the latest issue of our magazine, Review, for the debate to begin both within Wales and between Wales and other nations, but that debate has so far been conspicuous by its absence.

Yet without that debate, Wales risks being sidelined in the unfolding of a new UK constitution, having solutions foisted upon us that may not be what people want or need, that may suit someone else’s purposes and not those of the people of Wales.  This is a time for a bit of forward thinking, and for some strong political leadership too. Maybe the new Plaid leader will show the way. Watch this space.

Victoria Winckler is Director of the Bevan Foundation