Wales Ahead Tackling Poverty

Last week the Joseph Rowntree Foundation published a short report that compared approaches to reducing child poverty in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.  Written by JRF’s Scotland Adviser and former think-tank head, Jim McCormick,  it provides an independent and arms-length overview of how the Welsh Government is doing – in terms of policy if not outcomes – in reaching the target of eradicating child poverty by 2020.

I read it waiting for the killer line that showed that, as is so often the case, Wales was lagging behind.

But no!

It turns out that in many ways the Welsh Government’s tackling poverty plans are ahead of the game. Jim McCormick concludes that:

Wales appears to have the most coherent strategy based on the 2013 tackling poverty action plan. It has a delivery framework based around four broad aims, backed by a set of baseline indicators, milestones and targets to the end of the decade.  … An emerging focus on synthesis of evaluation evidence gives the Welsh approach more of a ‘what works’ feel than the other countries.   

In other ways too, Wales is leading the UK and indeed European pack, with poverty being explicitly part of a Ministerial portfolio as well as having a Deputy Minister wholly dedicated to ‘tackling poverty’.  This is a positive but scary place to be.  Fail, and it’s a very public fail indeed. Succeed, and there will be plenty ready to knock back and talk down the achievement.

There is a limit to what can be achieved by devolved nations. The main levers for addressing the distribution of income and wealth, the tax and benefit system, remain with the UK government. Even when elements of the system are devolved, they are either unused (e.g. income tax varying powers in Scotland or council tax varying powers in all three nations) or looking very costly (e.g. the anticipated exemption of existing social housing tenants in Northern Ireland from Housing Benefit under-occupancy rules / bedroom tax is likely to cost £17 million). 

At best, Jim McCormick concludes, it seems that devolved governments can only really impose some limits on the rising tide of poverty – there is simply no evidence that devolution brings greater impact. This conclusion puts the Welsh Government, and in particular its poverty Ministers, in an even more risky position – they are, if McCormick is right, doomed to fail.

Yet actions of devolved governments can make a real difference to the quality of low-income families’ lives, if not the numbers on low incomes, whether it is ensuring they have a decent, warm home, access good education and are not ripped off by sky-high charges for credit, furniture and food. 

Ministers in devolved governments need to be very clear what they can – and cannot – do.

It might hurt but the Welsh Government needs to admit that child poverty is very unlikely to be eradicated by 2020 – indeed it will be doing well to hold it at current levels. However it can make sure that every child has a decent education, a warm home and a healthy lifestyle.

Is this too much to ask in the 21^st century?

Victoria Winckler is Director of the Bevan Foundation