Contenders ready?

Two sets of all-Wales elections mark the end of a marathon run of voting: but how will women fare when the votes are counted?

2012 will mark the end of a marathon set of all-Wales elections.  Since 2007, the people of Wales have had the opportunity to vote no less than seven times in five elections and two referendums.  Party workers will again be out in force this year for local elections in May and the police commissioner contests in November.

The local elections represent a key mid-term test for both the Labour government in Wales and the Coalition government in Westminster, and to a certain extent the new Plaid leader.  However the outdated method by which we elect councillors could dramatically skew the parties’ tallies of seats.

Labour has, historically, performed well in local elections.  Before 1999 the party controlled over half of Wales’ 22 councils.  While Labour remained the largest party in terms of share of the vote in 2008, First Past The Post (FPTP) disproportionately disadvantaged the party in key areas.  In Merthyr Tydfil Labour came first on vote share with 37.1% ahead of the independents on 35.9%.  Yet translated into seats, Labour won fewer than a quarter of the seats while the independents won nearly 58%.

The story was repeated in Cardiff.  There it was a virtual dead heat between the Conservatives (27.5% of the vote) and Labour (27%) with the Liberal Democrats narrowly behind (26.2%) and Plaid Cymru fourth (12.6%).  Yet ironically because of the LibDems’ ability to play FPTP to its own advantage, they won the most councillors (46.7% of seats) and have led the council in coalition with Plaid Cymru.

It may well be the case that FPTP returns the favour to Labour in its Valley’s heartlands, but with the party still failing to achieve a decisive breakthrough in Mid & West and parts of North Wales, Labour could once again find outside locked out of power despite public support.

2012 will also be a critical year for women in politics.  Across Wales, just 1 in 4 councillors are female.  Out of 22 local authorities, just one is led by a woman.  In fact, men called John are twice as likely to lead a Welsh council as women.

May will therefore represent a key test for all the parties.  Failure to secure a fair level of female councillors will strengthen calls for parties to move further on positive measures like twinning and all-women shortlists.

November marks an historic first in Welsh democracy, as voters will be able to express a more sophisticated opinion at the ballot box.  Elections for the police commissioners will use the Supplementary Vote (SV) – the system used in the London mayoral elections, were voters can express a first and second preference.  Up until now, only voters across Scotland, Northern Ireland, London and other parts of England with directly elected mayors have had the right to use a preferential voting system.

Welsh political parties have taken differing approaches to the commissioner elections.  Labour looks almost certain to contest the elections, indications from the LibDems is that the party will not ‘centrally support’ candidates, while Plaid appear to be seeking alliances with groups opposed to the politicisation of the police.  The position of the Conservatives is unclear.

Yet because we’ll be using the Supplementary Vote candidates will have to campaign in a new way – mobilising their base will not be enough.  In London, political parties, particularly those on the centre-left have become more adept of advising voters who to second preference.  The arrangement struck between Labour’s Ken Livingstone and the Greens’ Sian Berry in 2008 is the starkest example.  Mainstream political parties are almost certain to work together to some extent to block any extremist attempt to win control of a police service in Wales.  But the fact that FPTP was rejected as a voting system means that extremist parties like the BNP will find it almost impossible to achieve a break through.

Concerns remain about the gender impact police commissioner elections will have – with the Centre for Women in Democracy sounding strong warning bells.  The closest comparison is England’s directly elected mayors, where women are far less likely to contest elections.  Of the 5 mayoral contests in 2011, just 21% of the candidates were female.  Currently 30% of police authority members in Wales are female (broadly the UK average), and two of the four Welsh police authorities are chaired by women.

New Policing & Crime Panels will scrutinise the work of police commissioners, but as the membership of these panels will largely be drawn from local government – the prospect of gender balance looks remote.

Electorally, only one thing looks certain in 2012: while the colour of the political map may well be radically redrawn – there is still a huge amount of work to do to ensure gender equality is a reality in public life.

Stephen Brooks is Director of Electoral Reform Society Wales