Bevan Foundation 
Changes much bigger than who is the next First Minister are afoot in the Senedd: our Director, Victoria Winckler, looks at what Senedd reform might mean.
With a minority government the norm in Wales, the Senedd has long been a focus for people and organisations wanting to get their voice heard. Big changes are ahead to reform the Senedd: the Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act received Royal Assent on 24th June, and the Senedd Cymru (Electoral Candidate Lists) Bill is progressing through the Welsh parliament.
The reforms will not only alter the composition of the Senedd, they will also affect how organisations and individuals engage with the Welsh parliament and its politicians. Quite how is the topic of our new webinar coming up in September, where participants will explore the possible implications in depth – and it is never too early to start preparing.
More Senedd members
From 2026, there’ll be an increase of more than 50 per cent in the number of members of the Senedd. Engaging with 96 members could well be very different to engaging with 60: there will be more people to get to know, more people to brief, more Senedd Members to invite to your event. Indeed, will it be worth trying to keep in touch with all 96 or should you target your efforts?
The increase in numbers following Senedd reform will mean that more than a third of MSs elected in 2026 will be fresh faces. On the hand, fresh faces might bring new ideas, insights and experiences to the Senedd, which is probably no bad thing. On the other hand, you may no longer be able to count on the relationships with politicians that your organisation has developed over the years as there will be new kids on the block. How will you forge new relationships from scratch?
Political diversity
Forecasting election results is always high risk. And it is a fool’s game to try to predict the political make-up of the Senedd when the election is two years away – and Senedd reform means they will be based on a different electoral system. Indeed, the new constituencies have not even been decided yet.
But, irrespective of the detail about winners and losers, we can be pretty sure that the new Senedd will be more diverse politically. There could well be representation of several smaller parties – not just Reform but more Lib Dems, some Green Party members and who knows who else? While some organisations may have experience of engaging with the Senedd when there were multiple different parties, some may not. Do you treat them all equally? How do you avoid being perceived as ‘too close’ to one group? How will you build cross party support? All these are issues it is worth thinking about now, not in 18 months time.
Let’s party!
The new electoral system will mean that people will vote for a political party rather than a candidate. The Senedd members are then chosen, in order, from a list put forward by political parties, in proportion to the share of votes the party receives. It is the system currently used for the election of regional members of the Senedd, but will apply to all seats.
This ‘closed list’ system gives considerable control to political party HQs, who will decide not only who is on the list but the order in which they appear. It is argued that it also limits choices for voters, who can no longer choose that helpful Ms X or avoid nasty Mr Y but instead have to pick their preferred party.
The closed list system raises big issues for those who want to engage with politicians in future. It is not impossible to anticipate that candidates – and in due course elected members – will toe the political line in order to secure and maintain their place on the list. The Senedd isn’t known for its rebellions, but the dominance of party HQs could quash healthy debate, vital scrutiny and challenge.
This raises questions of how to engage with politicians on issues that are off the political agenda, and how to raise concerns about government policies or performance. Will the maverick back-bencher disappear? Will the role of Senedd committees change? Or will there be even less scrutiny despite the increase in numbers?
There’s plenty to think about Senedd reform – and all this – and more – will be covered in our webinar on 17th September.
