Lining up and rowing back: what next for devolution?

What might the relationship between UK and Welsh governments mean for devolved policies, asks Victoria Winckler, director of the Bevan Foundation. 

It’s fourteen years since a Welsh government had to do business with a UK government of a similar political colour. Much is being made of closer cooperation between the two bodies, but the possible implications for policy have not been explored. 

Closer working

The Labour manifesto made clear that a new government would work closely with the Welsh Government.  Already the Prime Minister is putting that into practice meeting the First Minister today. This is very welcome after many years in which UK Ministers were at best vague about the devolution settlement and at worst were looking to override it.  

But closer working doesn’t necessarily mean harmonious working. There are already areas of obvious conflicts and disagreements – levelling up, devolution of policing and youth justice, the Crown estate – to name just a few.  Closer working is not just about these jagged edges of devolution. Closer working could also signal smoothing out the jagged edges of policy – the areas of difference in how the respective governments approach wicked issues.

Over the 14 years of a Conservative UK government (and indeed during the Blair / Brown years), the Welsh government has prided itself on being different. Hardly surprisingly, some of the policy differences reflect contrasting political views: think student finance, charges for social care, reform of the private rental sector and (now deferred) reforms of council tax. Other differences are more about style than substance: for example there were universal free meals for infant pupils in England long before the Welsh government introduced them for all primary pupils. Indeed, many have argued that the ‘clear red water’ that the late Rhodri Morgan claimed was neither clear nor particularly red.

Lining up?

With two parties of the same political colour, we can expect greater alignment between Wales and England on a number of key policy areas. Yes, there might be some Welsh approaches that cross the border – such as Rent Smart England or enacting the socio-economic duty – but I suspect it’ll be the Welsh government that does most of the adjusting.

One of the most obvious areas is health. With the PM reportedly planning a blitz on waiting times by NHS England staff working evening and weekends, we can expect something very similar in Wales to follow. It would be an odd Welsh health minister who didn’t follow suit.  

Similarly, with economic growth underpinning UK Labour’s entire programme, expect to see a much more pro-growth agenda in Wales. The easing of planning rules, to simplify the construction of homes and fast-track new laboratories, digital infrastructure and gigafactories, could trigger a similar revision of Wales’s planning guidance.  And the talk of limits on private sector rents in the Labour manifesto could well accelerate and shape the Welsh government’s very tentative steps towards rent controls.  

Rowing back? 

The flip side of a likely policy alignment is that the Welsh government rows back in areas where it is more progressive than the UK government. This is especially likely on UK Labour’s sore points. So, while the Labour manifesto is committed to a ‘fair’ immigration system and has already scrapped the Rwanda scheme, it most definitely is not talking about ‘a nation of sanctuary’.  Expect the rollout of childcare for 2-year-olds to come under pressure to match England’s focus on provision for working parents rather than all families.  To accelerate economic growth, Welsh measures that are perceived to be anti-growth (even if they are not in reality), such as the 20mph speed limit in built up areas and a tourist tax, could well be put on the back burner. 

What does this mean for devolution? 

On the one hand, there is little benefit in difference for difference’s sake – we have hopefully passed the point where putting a dragon on something makes it ‘Welsh’.   Where an approach that fits circumstances in England fits circumstances in Wales just well then, to me, that is fine.  Wales does not have the monopoly on good ideas and so if something that works in England can be applied effectively in Wales, then that to me is also fine.

On the other hand, the whole point of devolution is to better reflect social, economic, cultural, environmental and political differences here – an alignment with English policies that is so close you can barely tell the difference undermines the rationale for having a Welsh government and Senedd.  Crucially, the Senedd is not a mini Westminster – its different electoral system means that it has a wider range of representation, and the Welsh government usually needs some form of agreement with another party.

A closer working relationship between the UK and Welsh governments that ignores the reality of devolution, including its different political hinterland, will soon come a cropper.