2016 will be a year of two halves

Victoria Winckler looks at what 2016 could bring in Welsh politics.

2016 promises to be a year of two halves – the first dominated by the Assembly election and the immediate aftermath, the second by the new Welsh Government getting down to business.

Indeed in many ways the pre-election period started before Big Ben bonged midnight on 31^st December, with tetchy exchanges between the parties and some prospective candidates setting a somewhat ominous tone for the next few months.

This is all the more disappointing because the 2016 election could – and indeed should – be different to previous years.

It is the first election in which the parties go to the polls able to promise to bring forward new legislation, and the first where they can offer higher or lower income tax as well as taxes on certain other goods and services.  Instead of offering the electorate this, that or the other policies and promises of managing X, Y or Z better, they could be much more radical – a party could, for example, cut income tax by 5p in the pound, legislate to stop private education or sell off Wales’ forests, and much more besides.

The 2016 election also ought to be different because of the scale of challenges Wales faces in the next five years.

As our report on what Wales might be like by 2020 spelled out, unless there is a significant change in what the Welsh Government does, the forecasts suggest that Wales’ economy will perform poorly compared with the rest of the UK, poverty and severe disadvantage will rise, thousands of children will leave school without good GCSEs, demand for healthcare services will rocket, and the challenges of improving the environment and cutting carbon emissions will remain. And all this at a time when the Welsh Government’s funding from the UK Government is set to fall by 11% in real terms compared with 2010-11.

It remains to be seen if the party manifestos include proposals that are up to the scale of the challenges ahead.

Whoever wins will then face a tough second half of 2016 getting to grips with the issues. There will be new Ministers and new portfolios; as well as new committees, committee chairs and members. There’ll probably be a new programme of government, with new targets, measures and plenty of promises and within a matter of months a new draft budget for 2017/18.

These changes will inevitably attract a lot of interest, for they are what excites the public affairs community.

What is much less clear is whether there will be enough substance in the new government’s programme to make a real difference on the ground. As we look ahead over the coming year, the acid tests of any new government should be what they are doing for ordinary people, of all backgrounds and in all parts of Wales, not just now but in the next five years.

Over the next few months and years, the Bevan Foundation will be generating new solutions to many of the challenges Wales faces. We will seek to inform and shape the legislation, policies and practices of whoever forms the next Welsh Government as well as other public, private and third sector bodies. We rely on the generosity and support of many individuals, organisations and charitable trusts to do so – so please help us to make Wales fair, prosperous and sustainable.

Victoria Winckler is Director of the Bevan Foundation